之前的判断没错,从数据上看,Kalshi 交易量高度集中在体育板块,体育板块的交易量占比超 85%,而体育赛事往往为了最大化观众数量而安排在周末。这期间下注量会增加,导致了为什么 Kalshi 某些单日的交易量会显著高于日常水平
与此同时,Kalshi 在政治板块的交易日益衰落,日交易量不足 500 万美元,占比不到 5%
经过这近一年的发展,Polymarket 和 Kalshi 逐渐形成了出自己的优势和特点吧。Kalshi 显著偏科于体育板块,特别是 NFL 比赛;而 Polymarket 在政治上的现实影响力强,体育和 Crypto 板块也在稳步发展中


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