16h ago
Some fun math exercise for @Lighter_xyz’s potential token valuation.
Since TVL and OI are the key KPI metrics according to @vnovakovski, then I’m guessing how they will estimate valuation will be based on these 2 metrics (and also revenue data but we cannot accurately estimate that right now).
I will benchmark them using FDV/TVL ratio to compare relative valuations. For FDV/OI ratio, has a really good gauge here:
If we look at the FDV/TVL ratio of various Perp DEXes with live tokens as of 25 Oct, it would look something like this:
As we can clearly see, the newer Perp DEXes commands a higher multiple due to tokens being newer and not going through heavy vesting schedules.
It is also likely driven by traders who got rich using such platforms, making them stickier users vs the older-gen Perp DEXes, which explains this discrepancy.
@Lighter_xyz is currently ranked ~2/3 in terms of metrics, if we take on a scenario analysis, it can look something like this:
Lighter’s implied FDV range is therefore ~$5.4B – $9.8B, depending on where it prices versus peers.
A base case of ~$8.8B FDV feels realistic if sentiment remains hot for new perp protocols and TVL sustains above $1B.
If it grows TVL to $2B+, a $15B FDV scenario becomes possible (using ~7–8x multiple).
Therefore, an expected valuation range for Lighter based on current stats is between $5B-10B FDV.
Going further, if we assume circulating supply (and therefore circulating market cap) at launch to be between 25%-30%, the base case circulating market cap will sit around $2.2-2.6B, with upper bounds reaching ~$4B if it’s a extremely bullish launch.
In point terms, using FDV/TVL ratio, each point is worth around $105-$250.
The implied valuation will dynamically shift with increases or decreases in TVL, and given the hype, I think a 7-8x multiple is fair.
Based on @saliencexbt OTC desk (highest volume traded)
Bids are pricing points at a 20% discount
While asks are pricing points at a 9.5% discount
(Based on the lower-bound estimate of $105/point)
End of the day, everyone will buy/sell their own Lighter token at the price they deserve.
Conviction must be built, not borrowed
Good luck and I hope this helps!
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